2006-2016年昆明市雷电致灾因素分析及易损性风险区划     

刘平英  张腾飞  周清倩 《气象科学》2018,38(6):824-831

基于近11 a（2006-2016）云南省闪电定位监测数据以及雷电灾害汇编资料,运用ArcGIS对闪电数据与地理信息进行叠加,分析昆明市地闪活动规律和雷电灾害时空分布特征,结合地理环境、人口分布和经济社会发展情况,研究雷电致灾成因机制。从灾害系统理论和综合易损性出发,构建评价指标体系及权重判断矩阵,计算雷电灾害风险综合评价指数R值并进行分级,形成昆明市雷电灾害易损性风险区划。结果表明：频繁活跃的地闪活动是导致雷电灾害多发的主要致灾影响因子,雷电灾害的时空分布与地闪活动的变化特征存在较好的对应关系。全市有雷电灾害高易损区3个,次高易损区2个,中易损区4个,次低易损区4个,低易损区1个,建立雷电灾害易损性区划,能够为确定雷电防护重点和防范等级提供必要的参考依据,通过完善雷电防护措施,可以增强承灾体抵御雷电灾害的能力。  相似文献   

基于GIS的沪汉蓉高铁线路暴雨灾害风险区划   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

崔新强  付佳  代娟  刘静  周小兰 《气象科学》2018,38(1):113-120

通过收集整理沪汉蓉高铁沿线近13 a相关资料,采用层次分析法、专家打分法和加权综合评价法,通过暴雨灾害的危险性、孕灾环境的敏感性、承载体的易损性和防灾减灾能力等4类因子构建了沪汉蓉高铁线路暴雨灾害风险区划模型,绘制了沪汉蓉高铁线路暴雨灾害风险区划图。结果表明,沪汉蓉高铁线路暴雨灾害风险呈现西部高于东部特征,4个高风险区主要集中在武汉以西,分别为湖北天门—潜江段、宜昌西部—恩施东部、重庆东部、四川内江—资阳段,高风险区段与高铁沿线主要暴雨多发区中心位置基本一致,研究成果对沪汉蓉高铁沿线市县开展暴雨灾害防御工作具有较好的决策参考作用。  相似文献   

Understanding scientists’ computational modeling decisions about climate risk management strategies using values-informed mental models     

《Global Environmental Change》2017

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A multi-level perspective on climate risks and drivers of entrepreneurial robustness – Findings from sectoral comparison in alpine Austria     

《Global Environmental Change》2017

Recent works on organizational adaptation to climate change have repeatedly stressed that – despite concerns about large-scale impacts of climate change on supply chain networks – studies on climate change adaptation in manufacturing industries are still surprisingly scarce. The following study develops a systemic analytical framework based on which climate risks for manufacturing industries are reviewed and drivers (defined as supportive factors) of entrepreneurial robustness are examined. The analysis builds upon a case study in the alpine Austrian state of Tyrol where an intense regional rise of average temperatures occurs, going along with increased risks of natural mountain hazards and exposed settlement structures. In this climate-sensitive setting the authors conducted a survey on risk perceptions among 102 managers from manufacturing firms. Based on a comparison of the sectors metal and engineering, timber products, and construction, the authors argue that drivers of entrepreneurial robustness can be subsumed under five major strategic principles: (a) the deployment of slack resources, (b) vertical supply chain integration, (c) manufacturing flexibility, (d) material efficiency, and (e) technological risk prevention. Departing from the empirical results, the authors argue that across these principles the development of drivers depends on an interplay of structural prerequisites and human decisions on the levels of the focal firm, the supply chain network, and the political, economic, and geographic environment. In this sense, the authors conceptualize different forms of contingencies – thus effects influencing the development of drivers – within an ontology which may support further system-oriented analysis of climate change adaptation in industry.  相似文献   

苏锡常地区地面沉降风险评价管理模型研究初探          下载免费PDF全文

于军  武健强 《江苏地质》2008,32(2):113-117

平原区超采地下水引发的地面沉降地质灾害已成为影响这些地区经济可持续发展的重要制约因素,如何从收益、成本、风险三个方面为决策者提供制定地面沉降相关防治措施的综合支持,实现灾害防治从被动应对向主动防御转变,是地面沉降防治研究领域的新课题。在综合考虑苏锡常地区技术、经济、人类活动等因素基础上,从地面沉降总体风险和地区差异水平出发,提出构建地面沉降风险评价模型及决策支持系统的初步研究思路和方法,为实现地面沉降防治的科学化决策管理进行了探索。  相似文献   

Approaches for comparative evaluation of raster GIS-based landslide susceptibility zonation maps     

R.P. Gupta  D.P. Kanungo  M.K. Arora  S. Sarkar 《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2008

Evaluation of maps generated from different conceptual models or data processing approaches at spatial level has importance in many geoenvironmental applications. This paper addresses the spatial comparison of different landslide susceptibility zonation (LSZ) raster maps of the same area derived from various procedures.  相似文献   

GIS综合评价模型在地质灾害详细调查中的应用     

李再兴  丁丽  徐伟  杨杨 《地质灾害与环境保护》2016,(1):70-73

以河南省登封市地质灾害调查为例,在分析地质环境条件的基础上,总结地质灾害发育特征,确定易发性分区评价指标,并运用GIS综合评价模型分析计算,得出的分区结果与实际吻合较好。通过对GIS综合评价模型的研究,可为大区域内地质灾害易发性评价提供参考。  相似文献   

Uncertainty in dam safety risk analysis     

Gregory B. Baecher 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2016,10(2):92-108

The character and importance of uncertainty in dam safety risk analysis drives how risk assessments are used in practice. The current interpretation of uncertainty is that, in addition to the aleatory risk which arises from presumed uncertainty in the world, it comprises the epistemic aspects of irresolution in a model or forecast, specifically model and parameter uncertainty. This is true in part but it is not all there is to uncertainty in risk analysis. The physics of hazards and of failure may be poorly understood, which goes beyond uncertainty in its conventional sense. There may be alternative scenarios of future conditions, for example non-stationarity in the environment, which cannot easily be forecast. There may also be deep uncertainties of the type associated with climate change. These are situations in which analysts do not know or do not agree on the system characterisation relating actions to consequences or on the probability distributions for key parameters. All of these facets are part of the uncertainty in risk analysis with which we must deal.  相似文献   

Different thermal preferences for brooding and larval dispersal of two neighboring shrimps in deep‐sea hydrothermal vent fields          下载免费PDF全文

Hiromi Watanabe  Takuya Yahagi  Yukiko Nagai  MiHye Seo  Shigeaki Kojima  Jun‐ichiro Ishibashi  Hiroyuki Yamamoto  Katsunori Fujikura  Satoshi Mitarai  Takashi Toyofuku 《Marine Ecology》2016,37(6):1282-1289

Temperature is an important factor affecting the distributions and life‐history traits of marine animals. Deep‐sea hydrothermal vents are suitable environments to examine ecologic differences related to temperature, due to the steep temperature gradients around the vents. Rearing experiments under various temperature conditions (5–30 °C) at atmospheric pressure demonstrated a difference in thermal effects on egg hatching and larva in two co‐occurring, vent‐associated alvinocaridid shrimps – the peripherally distributed Alvinocaris longirostris and the centrally distributed Shinkaicaris leurokolos. The duration before hatching became shorter as temperature increased, while the maximum hatching rate occurred at higher temperatures in S. leurokolos (10–20 °C) than in A. longirostris (10 °C). Hatched larvae of both species were negatively buoyant, and larva with normal abdominal length could actively swim and stay suspended in the mid‐ or surface water layers of the culture plates under our experimental conditions. However, no larvae settled or metamorphosed into juveniles under the rearing conditions used in this study. Larvae with shortened abdomens occurred under most of the experimental conditions, although they were less frequent at 10 °C in A. longirostris and 20 °C in S. leurokolos. The maximum survival periods at these temperatures were 88 days in A. longirostris and 30 days in S. leurokolos. These characteristics may cause differences in the distributional ranges of the two species. The present results indicate that temperature is an important factor controlling life‐history traits of vent shrimps.  相似文献   

我国重要矿产资源战略性评价     

胡永达 《地质论评》2016,62(S1):103-104

重要矿产资源尤其是战略性矿产的安全保障历来是世界各国关注的重点之一。关于战略性矿产的研究,欧美等发达国家和地区已经建立了一套比较成熟的理论和方法,并不定期更新战略性矿产目录。而我国对于战略性矿产的研究相对较晚,尚未形成统一的内涵意义、评价体系和方法。为此,本文在重新界定战略性矿产内涵基础上构建供应风险-经济价值二维评价体系,运用定性和定量相结合的评价方法综合评价我国主要矿产资源的战略性。  相似文献